Market analysis for 21 September 2017

USD: FOMC’s statement was more hawkish than traders and investors had hoped. This is a good thing for USD. As expected, the FED keeps rates on hold and plans to start the balance-sheet reduction in October. The statement was quite optimistic about growth and employment. The “dot plot” chart for September showed median expectations for 2017 and 2018 which remain at 1.4% and 2.1%. Another rate hike is on the table until the end of the year and another 3 hikes in 2018. According to Bloomberg WIRP, chances for a December hike are 63.8% from 53.2% previously.

NZD: There is no doubt that NZD is driven by political factors. Financial Times said that a new poll shows the governing National Party could rule alone after the country’s general election on September 23. The economist Shamubeel Eaqub said in an interview for Financial Times on September 12 that the kiwi had been spiking up and down on the polls and it’s most likely this will continue to happen until Saturday.

JPY: BOJ left its target interest rates and asset purchase program unchanged as expected. In a Bloomberg survey, 45 economists agreed on the possibility of no change in monetary policy. The vote was 8-1, with Goushi Kataoka objecting.

EUR: Before FOMC some ECB members were concerned about euro strength. With that in mind, the October meeting could be a very important one because ECB members will decide on their 2018 quantitative easing position and whether to adjust its forward guidance.