Main events of the week are:
Monday 25 September – German election and NZD elections; both failed to obtain majority;
BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks; ECB President Draghi Speaks;
Tuesday 26 September for USD – CB Consumer Confidence; FED Chair Yellen Speaks;
Wednesday 27 September for USD – Crude Oil Inventories; for CAD – BOC Gov Poloz Speaks; for NZD – Official Cash Rate and RBNZ Rate Statement.
EUR seems to be affected by Merkel’s results which performed weaker than expected. Now a coalition is needed meaning a ‘Jamaica’ Coalition with the FDP and Green Parties is possible. Anyway, German elections is not a main driven factor for euro evolution. Most important for its evolution is inflation who is admitted to be still soft, lower than expected, but reflation is ongoing according to Swiss private bank Edmond de Rothschild.
As some of you know the ECB suggested that it would announce the end of QE. Lyxor’s senior credit strategist Lionel Melin thinks it is likely that the ECB will announce the end of its quantitative easing programme during its October session. That’s why October’s meeting is expected to be a very important one.
The Bank of England is expected to raise rates in coming months, the raise will be data dependent.
From Bank of Japan, there are no signs of a big change. BOJ is ready to continue actual monetary policy and buying assets in order to maintain the 10-year Japanese Government Bonds at its 0% target. It’s hard to tell when BOJ will reach the inflation target of 2% especially since BOJ postponed the deadline for it.
PM Abe announces the dissolution of lower house. The election is rumored to be on 22 October.
CAD is quite since Friday. It is influenced by oil price, but the price was flat Monday morning, then Brent crude oil jumped towards $58 a barrel for the moment. OPEC Sec-Gen Barkindo says that OPEC will keep pressing ahead with their efforts until they reach their goal of a fully balanced and growing, sustainable global oil market and industry. The boost in oil price is given by treats that come from Turkey to Iraqi Kurdistan for organizing an independence referendum.
“We have the tap. The moment we close the tap, then it’s done,” President Erdogan said and warned Erbil that Turkey has controls over the pipelines through which the autonomous region’s oil reaches international markets according to Financial Times.
At RBNZ Rates Meeting no change in the communication is expected according to analysts from BoFA.