Small countries have done a better job containing and dealing with the pandemic, and a good example in this case is Taiwan. Some bigger countries like Germany have also done a good job and this was possible, in my view, mainly because of their sense of civic duty and respect for others; people were responsible and took caution while meeting others.
But one of the big questions that we all must ask is how Europe will look after COVID-19? United, strong or divided and weakened? As we can see this crisis will last longer than initially thought. The “V” shape recovery is off the table. Some now talk about a “U” shape or even an “L” shape. With the second wave already here and a third one potentially at the door when temperatures drop it’s hard to say exactly how long it will take to reach the economic growth we had before the pandemic. Will the world ever be the same after this pandemic? And there is no right answer for this because the world is constantly adapting and has survived all past pandemics.
Regarding the situation in Europe, Timothy Garton Ash said in an interview for the Hoover Institution that there are at least three main problems and divisive tendencies:
- Brexit;
- the North-South divide: inside the eurozone the wealthier creditor countries like Germany and the Netherlands in the North and the poorer debtor nations like Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece in the South. Italy and Spain were already hit first by the eurozone crisis and now by the pandemic. The question is how things will work between those two sides;
- the West-East divide: countries like Hungary which in many views is no longer democratic, and of course Poland — a good example of eroding rule of law and democracy at a high rate who’s taking the opportunity to accelerate it in the pandemic.
So we must ask again which of those problems will contribute more to the process of the disintegration of the European Union. Will the EU deal with this problem or will it remain there like a bomb ready to explode at any time? Unfortunately, the pandemic is a big test. Italy pointed out that the EU abandoned them and in one poll 42% of Italians were in favor of leaving the Union.
The EU must become aware of these threats and must do the necessary work to solve them in order to overcome this phase. In Hungary and Poland, as in other countries that are not necessarily EU members, we’ve seen an alarming rise of populism and it’s concerning.
Another problem for the EU are the Brexit negotiations who were affected by the pandemic and the chance of a no-deal Brexit or hard Brexit is high. The UK faces a big impact on its economy because of the pandemic and the Johnson government will take the opportunity to blame only the pandemic, not the failed Brexit negotiations as well.
My personal opinion is that the EU could pass this test if all countries put aside their differences and decide to fight together because it’s easier to deal with a big threat if you are strong and united. And when I say a big threat, I’m also thinking of China who is probably the biggest geopolitical threat not only for Europe, but for the entire world, including Russia in my opinion.
We all have seen the tensions between the US and China rise. And as T G Ash said, this is a new form of a cold war. There is a difference between this cold war and the previous one because back then, unlike now, “Europe was on its knees, weak and poor and it was West Europeans who were trying to keep the US in Europe to stand up to the Soviet Union.” Of course, this is no longer the case now because Europe is stronger, richer and more powerful and it’s standing between US and China.
But where do they position themselves on this matter? The answer is more complicated than it seems. Europe has seen during the pandemic how dependent they are on China for masks and other medical equipment and they will likely try to reduce this dependency in the future because Europe is becoming more and more skeptical about China. On the other hand, China is a big investor in Europe and it’s not impossible that if these investments grow, China will gain influence in certain countries and gain a seat at the negotiations table in the EU. For the moment this is less likely but who knows what the future brings.