Market Analysis for September 15

GBP: BOE kept the rate on hold yesterday and MPC voted 7 – 2 in favor as expected. Some analysts say the Official Bank Rate might rise this year due to concerns regarding inflation pressure. BOE Governor Mark Carney said in the past that the interest rate will remain unchanged for a long period of time, suggesting we might see no change this year. Since then conditions have changed and Mark Carney said in his post-decision press conference that there is a possibility for a rate hike. Some analysts say that November could be a good moment for it, although Carney noted that a modest adjustment is in discussion and that the BOE will take a decision based on future data.

Brexit concerns are still present but don’t impact the market too hard. Theresa May is expected to deliver a speech of high importance next week on September 22 in Florence. There are rumors that she will go ahead with a soft Brexit.

SNB: CHF is still overvalued and the bank will intervene if necessary. The interest rate was left unchanged.

EUR: ECB Weidmann said that QE is an emergency instrument to ward off deflation and deflation is largely gone. He also noted that ECB should not miss the right moment for normalization and that monetary policy will remain exceptionally easy even after QE will end.

USD seems to weaken even if August CPI was above expectation. After the latest data, there is a possibility for a rate hike in December. According to Bloomberg, WIRP expectations rose from 38,9% to 43,4%. FED is more concerned with inflation in contrast to Trump administration which is concerned about economic growth.

AUD is still strong against the USD. Copper price has weakened lately but rebounded this morning.

NZD is influenced at the moment by political factors that will last until September 23 when general elections are scheduled.

EUR/USD 10 June

According to analysts, a rate hike is still on the table for July. Based on this, the USD could see some gains.
In this case I recommend Sell limit EUR/USD at 1.1360, TP: 1.1310; SL: 1.1410
We can secure the transaction by moving SL to original entry point when we have a profit of 20-30 pips